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What is the Conversion Probability?

Conversion probability is a metric in Google Analytics that shows the probability of users to perform conversions within 30 days after the selected date range. This metric, currently is beta, is a new feature on Google Analytics. You can now access this metric, which can only be used for e-commerce conversions, from your report screen by using the path Audience > Behavior > Conversion Probability.

I have only one e-commerce site account with no GA 360. That account don’t have this metric, but it is available in other 360 accounts. So, I’m just not sure if it’s in GA 360 right now, or if it’s applicable all the accounts.

How is the Conversion Probability Calculated?

It can take up to 24 hours to reflect this metric on Google Analytics because the metric is calculated over all the sessions that have been performed. The working logic of this metric is essentially the same as that used in the smart targets metric. There is a learning algorithm through the objectives set out here to learn only through process, and it offers us a new metric.

The algorithm presents the probability as a result of specific calculations, of that users may perform a conversion after 30 days, as the probability of conversion metric. This metric is evaluated on a per-user basis and takes a value between 0-100. While reporting, the average conversion probability value of “dimension” created by those users is calculated.

For example:

  • The value generated by users from google/cpc on May 1-14
  • The value generated by users from mobile devices between May 1-14

What are the prerequisites for conversion probability metrics?

  • You must have at least 1000 e-commerce transactions per month in report of the view.
  • After the 1000 transaction, Analytics expects 30 days to be able to model correctly and offers the metric with these terms.

What Can be Seen in the Report and How do I Evaluate the Report?

What is Conversion Probability?

You can see the percentage of conversion probability, and evaluate your channel and resources based on that metric. You can also examine reports that occur by segmenting users according to this metric and use the relevant audiences as a remarketing list.

You can also use this metric in Google Optimize and can use it in your tests. In addition, to assess the performance of your segments and this metric, I suggest you select multiple possibilities as segments and create your report screens. You will even be able to make more accurate assessments by comparing these segments with each other.

For more information, please visit the Google Analytics help page.

I am an online marketer who focused on web analytics for years. I did lots of GTM and GA setups for big websites in Turkey. Also I made a success story with Google Optimize and it has released on Jan 2018.

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